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Contrary to all expectations, the tremendous growth of solar energy has led to it overtaking nuclear energy as a global source of electricity. Here we review seven reasons behind this success, and we also take a look at the future path of the sector.
Solar energy globally is witnessing a pivotal transformation. A decade ago, its presence was almost negligible globally, contributing only 1% of the total energy produced. By 2026, this percentage will almost certainly rise to 10%, surpassing nuclear energy, which has been a mainstay of electricity generation since the late 1970s.
According to statistics issued by Ember - a research center specializing in energy affairs based in the United Kingdom - solar energy globally outperformed nuclear energy (by a slight margin) in 2025. An analysis conducted by the BBC of Ember data during the twelve months ending in September 2026 also shows that solar energy clearly outperformed nuclear energy, as it produced a greater amount of electricity by 13%.
"Solar energy generating more electricity than all the nuclear power plants in the world is absolutely amazing, there's no doubt about it," says Dave Jones, one of Ember's founders.
From China's massive solar panel arrays to the sector's recent boom spurred by soaring oil prices, the astonishing rise of solar energy has defied all expectations. Here we review seven factors that made solar energy an “unstoppable force,” and we anticipate the features of the future in light of this development.
1. An underrated power
“Solar energy is now the main driver of the energy transition,” says Jan Rozino, professor of energy and climate policy at the University of Oxford in the UK.
Solar energy has also become the fastest growing source of new electricity in history, and is undoubtedly the largest source of new electricity in the world. In 2025, solar energy will cover three-quarters of the increase in global electricity demand, overtaking wind energy (which is also growing, albeit at a slightly slower pace).
“This is the path solar is on: not just being a leader in electricity, but becoming a leader in energy as a whole.” – Dave Jones
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“This was unexpected,” Rosenow says. He adds that prevailing expectations have underestimated the importance of solar energy year after year. Bodies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), an influential intergovernmental organization based in Paris, assumed “linear growth and gradual decline in costs, but they were wrong on both counts.”
Multiple sources indicate that by 2026, solar electricity generation will almost certainly outpace nuclear electricity generation globally. While the volume of electricity generated from nuclear energy has remained roughly constant since 2000, electricity generation from solar energy has increased by about 2,700-fold.
2. “Shockingly cheap”
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Jones says that solar energy, a technology that has been mature for about 15 years, had become the cheapest source of electricity in history by 2020. He points out that since then, the use of solar energy has expanded, its efficiency has increased, and the amounts of silicon and silver used in panels have decreased, which has led to a further decline in prices.
“China's massive manufacturing volume and current surplus production capacity have pushed solar panel prices to record lows,” Rosenow says.
In particular, the dramatic decline in solar panel prices over 2023 and 2024 has ushered us into what Jones describes as an era of “amazingly cheap” solar. In this regard, he says, “The price of a solar panel itself has become incredibly low, as it is much less than $100 (£75)...which guarantees that you will generate electricity for 30 or 40 years without needing any additional inputs at all.”
Of course, the cost-cutting benefits of solar energy are not limited to purely economic aspects, as researchers have estimated that the expansion of wind and solar power generation in the United States has achieved gains worth $249 billion (£186 billion) in terms of climate and health in the period between 2019 and 2022.
3. Global spread
China remains the world's largest solar powerhouse by a wide margin, but it is certainly not the only player in the field.
Although the United States has imposed a variety of tariffs on the solar energy sector, it remains in second place in terms of the size of installations, which is witnessing very rapid growth, especially in states won by US President Donald Trump in 2024. In fact, the United States currently has enough solar capacity to supply electricity to more than a third of American households.
“Tariffs and other federal policies that restrict the growth of renewable energy are certainly expected to raise costs and slow the pace of expansion compared to what we would have seen under other circumstances,” says Alicia Zhao, an expert on climate change mitigation pathways in the United States at the University of Maryland.
She adds, "However, economic factors remain a major reason behind the rapid growth of solar energy. Even with rising costs, solar energy remains one of the cheapest sources of new energy in the United States, and its projects are being implemented regardless of political orientations."
Meanwhile, India is moving away from fossil fuels at a much faster pace than China, with new solar energy covering 60% of the increase in electricity demand over the past two years.
In Australia, more than four million homes are equipped with rooftop solar panels, representing more than a third of all households.
4 - Unstable fossil fuels
Countries such as Pakistan and Lebanon have begun installing solar energy systems at a very rapid pace, while countries on the African continent are witnessing the installation of about 100,000 solar panels daily.
In many regions, rising diesel prices resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other, have enhanced the cost-effectiveness of solar energy. This is especially true in many African countries, where home diesel generators are an essential means of generating electricity due to the unreliability of national power grids. Solar panels for rooftops, most of which are imported from China, have become widespread as a practical alternative.
Jones points out that Ethiopia has gone further, banning the import of cars that run on gasoline or diesel in an effort to reduce dependence on oil and confront pollution.
Solar energy is also rapidly providing new sources of electricity in areas where fossil fuel-based power grids cannot meet demand. Pakistan, for example, has become a surprising example of the solar revolution, thanks to a very rapid rise in the installation rates of solar energy systems. In 2019, solar energy contributed less than 2% of the total electricity generated, but today this percentage has reached 24%, and this is due to the high cost of electricity relying on the national grid and its unreliability, in conjunction with the availability of cheap solar energy equipment imported from China.
“What's really amazing about Pakistan is that most of this expansion of solar energy has been self-financed by individuals, so people can afford it without having to take out loans,” says Jones.
Other countries located within what is known as the “Sun Belt”, from Lebanon to Nigeria, have also witnessed similar experiences. Rosenow points out that “solar energy allows families to take practical steps without waiting for governments or public utility companies,” pointing out that “in times of uncertainty, this speed and independence are extremely important.”
5. The battery revolution
Of course, solar energy can only be generated during the day when the sun is shining. In order for this energy to be transformed into electricity that can be used at any time, it must be combined with batteries.
Fortunately, batteries have witnessed a particular revolution in their costs, enhancing their ability to support the expansion of the use of solar energy. “Solar coupled with storage systems have become, in many cases, cheaper than new fossil fuel power plants in sunny areas,” says Rosenow. “Batteries have largely solved the daily dilemma of transporting solar energy produced in the middle of the day for use in the evening.”
Image source, Alamy
In California, for example, solar and batteries covered on average more than a quarter of electricity demand during the period from 19:00 to 21:00 (peak evening consumption) in the first half of 2026. US states, such as Vermont, are currently deploying home battery systems integrated into the electrical grid, often coupled with solar energy.
However, Rosenow and Jones point out that there are still obstacles to storing solar energy over longer periods of time, such as alternating seasons, cloudy periods, or monsoon rainy seasons. Rosenow stresses that this means that integrating solar energy into the broader electricity system remains crucial.
6- Complete conversion of electrical energy
Solar energy is a fundamental pillar in the move towards switching to electricity, which contributes to reducing dependence on fossil fuels in areas that did not previously rely on electricity, such as the electric car sector. "Transition to electricity" was chosen as a major focus of the United Nations climate talks being held this year in Türkiye.
Jones says, "This is the path that solar energy is heading toward: not only being dominant in the electricity sector, but becoming dominant in the energy sector as a whole."
However, Julia Soder, CEO of the Council for Long-Term Energy Storage, a global executive-led non-profit founded during COP26, cautioned that achieving this requires a solid plan.
She wrote in a blog post for the international policy network “Ren21” that “shifting towards total reliance on electricity (electrification) without controls entails fundamental risks. Adding massive new loads to the grid without providing built-in flexibility creates a fragile system,” adding that “the shift to electricity itself does not necessarily guarantee the system’s flexibility or ability to withstand.”
Rosenow believes that the obstacles currently facing solar energy are not related to panels or cost, but rather lie in electricity networks, storage technologies, and the speed of converting energy demand to depend on electricity. "The fundamental question is no longer whether solar energy will grow, but rather whether our energy-based systems and institutions can keep up with this expansion," he adds.
Zhao points out that energy demand in the United States is witnessing growth for the first time in decades, driven by the spread of data centers and the trend toward reliance on electricity, making energy security a national priority.
She adds, "Renewable energy sources already constitute more than 90% of new production capacity in the United States. The need for safe and quickly implemented electricity may open the door to a very important opportunity for further growth in the renewable energy sector, even in the absence of support from the current federal administration."
7. Technology expansion
In the past few years, pluggable solar panels, or so-called “balcony solar,” have begun to spread rapidly in Germany. Although they generate less electricity than rooftop panels, they pump power directly into the home via a regular electrical socket.
This technology has now been approved in many other countries, as well as in some US states, including California.
Meanwhile, the “agrivoltaics” model, which combines food production and solar generation, is being proposed as a solution to concerns in some regions about using land for solar energy.
Other technologies, from floating solar plants and mirrors to perovskite panels and solar windows, may see growth in the coming years.
What's next for solar?
In 2026, solar production capacity will continue to grow globally, but the pace of that expansion may slow for the first time ever, Jones says.
This is attributed to China; Last summer, Beijing changed its system for managing and subsidizing new solar energy installations, leading to a boom in installations during 2025 to take advantage of the old pricing system. In the rest of the world, the situation is different; Jones points out, “If we exclude China, we will find that the number of solar panels being installed this year exceeds what was installed last year.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, solar power generation will double compared to 2025 levels, overtaking hydropower to become the third largest source of electricity in the world.
“Where electricity from the grid is expensive and unreliable, economic viability remains a strong driver for turning to solar energy,” Rosenow says. “But there is one exception: If importing Chinese solar panels faces difficulties, this growth will not be as fast as hoped.”
There has been bad news about the climate recently, as it has become very likely that the global warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius will be exceeded, which is the goal set in the Paris Agreement in 2015, in light of the increasing climate repercussions and the world approaching reaching several climate turning points during this century.
However, the solar success story is proof that we are making progress in ways we never expected. A decade ago, "no one expected anything like this to happen," Jones explains, noting that the growth in reliance on clean electricity has directly led to a decline in the construction of coal-fired power plants.
"Right now, the worst-case scenarios [for climate change] point to a temperature rise of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, instead of 4 degrees Celsius," he adds.
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