Kirill Dmitriev, who is negotiating potential economic deals with the United States on behalf of Vladimir Putin, has promised a $14 trillion windfall for Washington. The condition: the end of US sanctions against Russia. Economists consider the sum exorbitant, although they recognize that Donald Trump could be tempted by these promises.

First modification: 02/20/2026 - 02:34 Last modification: 02/20/2026 - 02:34

For 14 billion dollars (12 billion euros), the Kremlin hopes to have the support of Donald Trump. While peace talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine in Geneva have been stalled since February 17, another avenue of negotiation appears more promising, at least for the American president and Vladimir Putin.

This alternative is led by Kirill Dmitriev, director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and trusted emissary of the Russian president, in charge of persuading Americans to sign economic agreements with Moscow. "The portfolio of potential projects between the United States and Russia exceeds $14 trillion," he declared on X on Wednesday, February 18.

A generous offer to ensure both the lifting of US sanctions and Trump's support for the Russian peace plan in Ukraine.

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"Complete nonsense!"

It is a staggering sum, even higher than what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned in early February. At the time he claimed that his intelligence services had discovered that, in parallel to the official peace negotiations, Russia had sent the Trump Administration the "Dmitriev package", supposedly worth 'only' $12 billion.

This amount had already generated concern among economists and specialists in Russia. "It's complete nonsense. The size of the Russian economy is only a fraction of that amount, so I don't see how it would be possible to promise such a sum," says Maximilian Hess, founder of the consulting firm Ementena Advisory and author of 'Economic Warfare: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West'.

More precisely, "Russian GDP amounts to two or three trillion dollars [six times less than Kirill Dmitriev's offer], making it economically inconceivable. Even if we are optimistic, it seems impossible to successfully sign contracts worth a trillion dollars," warns Vasily Astrov, an economist and Russia specialist at the Institute for International Economic Studies in Vienna.

The most likely scenario is that Kirill Dmitriev "presented a figure impressive enough to allow Donald Trump to 'sell' economic deals with Russia to the public," believes Sergei Popov, a specialist in Russian economics at Cardiff University.

Despite the absurdity of the official figure, the economists interviewed warn that "there would obviously be economic benefits" for Americans by signing agreements with Russia. Will that be enough to convince Donald Trump to end more than 10 years of US economic sanctions against Russia, which began in 2014 after the forced annexation of Crimea?

How to attract Donald Trump

The British magazine 'The Economist' attempted on Tuesday, February 17, to offer a more realistic estimate of the benefits for the United States of the "Dmitriev package." The weekly obtained details of the Russian offer, and "its conclusions and the figures presented are quite serious and credible," according to Vasily Astrov.

Without giving a global figure, this expert summarizes that it would amount to "more like several hundred billion dollars for the United States."

Kirill Dmitriev seeks to seduce Donald Trump in three areas: a boost to bilateral trade, access to frozen assets and the possibility of directly benefiting from Russian natural resources, explains 'The Economist'.

The most promising aspect seems to be hydrocarbons and other deposits. Russia remains an oil and natural gas giant. Dmitriev's offer mentions the still untapped resources in Siberia and the Arctic region.

"The future of the Russian oil sector undoubtedly lies in the Arctic," admits Vasily Astrov. Exxon Mobil would probably be happy to participate in this northern adventure in the search for black gold.

But this is also highly speculative income. "It is quite possible that there will be deposits that will prove unprofitable in the long run," Astrov believes. Most facilities are either obsolete or have yet to be built from scratch, which could be very expensive for anyone venturing into them.

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Furthermore, "the extractive industry in Russia can quickly become subject to expropriation by authorities," says Aleksei Kiselev, an economist at the School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute near Florence, Italy. In fact, a good dose of optimism or recklessness is needed to invest in Russian hydrocarbons, knowing that "what is signed one day can be revoked the next by the authorities," confirms Sergei Popov.

The credibility of information about untapped Russian resources is also questionable. Kirill Dmitriev, for example, touts all the rare earth elements waiting to be exploited in Russia. This argument is likely to be echoed in the United States, where they are considered a vital resource in the trade and technological conflict with China. Washington is also very interested in Ukraine's rare earth resources.

However, "the geological data dates back to the Soviet era and was established without taking into account its possible economic viability," explains Astrov.

McDonald's or China?

Therefore, "the most reliable source of income will probably come from increasing bilateral trade," says Aleksei Kiselev. There are fewer risks associated with the nature of the Russian economic and political system, such as unilateral expropriations, when selling or importing goods.

But the possible resurgence of bilateral trade "will not benefit the Russians, since American investments will not go into infrastructure and services that can boost the economy in the long term," explains Sergey Popov. According to the experts interviewed, the focus would be on the sale or purchase of assets and goods whose profits would only benefit a minority in Russia.

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Americans still have the ability to seize frozen assets. The invasion of Ukraine caused some Western groups to flee, whose assets were frozen or sold to Russian companies. Others remained in Russia, but a portion of their income was frozen in bank accounts. "Lifting the sanctions could allow them to recover these funds, which have continued to generate interest," notes 'The Economist'.

American groups such as McDonald's may also want to recover their franchises "that were absorbed by the local fast food chain Vkusno i Tochka," says Vasily Astrov.

It's easier said than done. Especially since Kirill Dmitriev seems to be offering the Americans the opportunity to regain the market share previously held by other Western groups that did not stay.

"Local businessmen who acquired these assets and foreign companies whose assets were frozen will probably weigh in and could initiate legal proceedings to object," explains Maximilian Hess.

All these Russian promises to Washington also risk irritating another power: China. "When everyone else distanced themselves from Russia, China sought to benefit," Astrov notes.

Beijing certainly won't stand by while Moscow offers Washington on a silver platter what China could get. "For Russia, improving its economic relations with the United States would also allow it to be in a less weak position vis-à-vis China," Kiselev emphasizes.

Beijing is likely not interested in Dmitriev succeeding in his mission of economic persuasion in the United States.

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