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Nine charts explaining Democrats’ landslide victory in the US midterm elections, and what it means for the president

Pre-election polls show that the U.S. midterm elections will be a tough battle for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.

But few expected Democratic victories in House, Senate and gubernatorial elections to be so overwhelming.

Trump is not on the ballot, but the midterm election results provide some clues as to what is wrong with him and his party.

The president's party suffers a dramatic reversal

We don’t have full election results yet, but the scale of Republican losses in the House and Senate elections was apparent early on.

Before the election, the Republicans held a slim majority in the House of Representatives. But now they look set to end up with their lowest seat share in decades. presidential election

midterm elections

In every midterm election since 2006, the balance of power has shifted further and further away from the party that controls the White House. Huge vote swings may not always mean losing the presidency, but falling into such a weak position in Congress will mean the Republican Party faces difficult challenges ahead.

Republicans also lost control of the Senate. Senate election results so far

Is Trump now a liability to the Republican Party?

In the run-up to the election, Trump repeatedly asked voters to imagine they were voting for him.

Now that the results are in, he says that would have had a very different outcome.

Yet a major poll conducted during the midterm elections showed that voters in most states rated Republicans higher than they rated the president himself.

In the 45 states where voter surveys were conducted, the Republican support rate ranged from less than 35% in places such as California and New Jersey...

⋯⋯Over 50% in places like Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Trump's approval ratings are lower in nearly every state.

Not all of these differences themselves are large enough to be statistically significant. But in each of the six battleground states in 2024, including Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump appears to be less popular than his party.

What voters did the Democrats win over?

Large numbers of people who backed Republicans in 2024 appear to be turning away from the party this time around, especially women and Hispanic voters.

Polling data shows that women are not only more likely to vote, but also more likely to support Democrats.

The data also shows that white voters are almost evenly split between the two major parties, while other ethnic groups strongly support the Democrats.

It is said that Hispanic voters played a key role in helping Trump return to the White House in 2024.

This time, like many other Americans, they say the economy and cost of living are important issues in this election.

But three-quarters of respondents said Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in many Hispanic communities were a key or very important factor in their voting decisions.

The chart below shows the difference in vote share between Trump and Kamala Harris in 2024 in the congressional district with the highest proportion of Hispanic voters.

⋯⋯And here are the results of this year’s House elections in the same districts, with many seats swinging back to Democratic candidates.

Will redistricting have any impact?

Ahead of the midterm elections, approximately 35 million Americans were drawn into redrawn congressional districts. Many district boundaries are deliberately altered to favor the party in power in each state, whether Republican or Democratic.

In Texas (Texas; Texas), Republicans won 25 of the state's 38 House seats in 2024, while Democrats won 13.

Republicans hope that redistricting in 2025 will allow them to capture five more districts from Democrats.

In fact, they won only one of the five targeted constituencies. Due to the dramatic change in the state's electoral situation, a Democratic senator and a Democratic governor were also successfully elected. Texas Senator-elect James Talarico and Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa celebrate after their victory

cost of living worries

For many Americans, the central issue of this election is rising prices for everyday products.

Although prices have increased significantly around the world since the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have experienced a significant price surge since the outbreak of the war with Iran in February.

The increase in petrol and diesel prices has also led to an increase in the cost of other commodities.

Many voters disagree with the decision to go to war, and for nearly three-quarters of voters, the conflict was an important factor in their vote.

As the election results became clear, Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged the strong feelings among voters and said ending the conflict should be a top priority if he is to regain support.

Vice President of the United States "The war is what cost us the election." JD Vance Vice President of the United States

After his historic defeat by the Democrats in the congressional elections, Trump's next actions are likely to shape the fate of the Republican Party and determine who will succeed him in the White House.

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