Federal Reserve spokesman Nick Timiraos believes that three consecutive strong inflation reports have made it almost impossible to raise interest rates in December. The policy debate turned to whether to raise interest rates by two yards at a time, or to maintain one yard at a time but increase the frequency of interest rate increases. (Preliminary summary: Interest rate hikes may accelerate in winter! Fed voting member Logan advocated at least another 2-point increase, and Deutsche Bank predicted that the tightening will extend to next year) (Background supplement: The Federal Reserve will remain on hold! Maintaining interest rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with two votes insisting on raising interest rates by another 1-point) The discussion of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in December is turning to the extent and pace. "Wall Street Journal" reporters Nick Timiraos and Matt Grossman pointed out in the latest report that the continued strong inflation data has greatly increased the possibility of raising interest rates at the December 8-9 meeting, and has also reopened discussions about accelerating tightening. The point of contention is not just how much it will rise next time. Officials will also have to judge whether this round of interest rate hikes will require just a few more minor adjustments or whether a longer tightening campaign will be necessary to cool down price pressures. Core inflation increased by 0.3% for the third consecutive month, putting pressure on gradual interest rate hikes. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% monthly in October, the same as in August and September. The single-month increase has not accelerated, but it has also failed to slow down further for three consecutive months. The Wall Street Journal noted that core prices rose at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the three months to October, up from a 1.6% annualized gain in the three months to July. The strengthening of short-term price trends has challenged officials' previous stance of not being eager to continuously raise interest rates. Officials in October tried to play down market bets on a rapid succession of rate hikes, but now the new inflation report is forcing them to reassess whether a slow adjustment will be enough to curb prices, or whether it will require a deeper tightening later on. A 2-point increase at a time and a 1-point increase in succession are two acceleration paths. There are two ways to speed up tightening: directly raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December, which is 2 points; or maintain the rate of 25 basis points and 1 point each time, but increase the possibility of subsequent interest rate hikes in January next year and no longer extend the observation period between two interest rate hikes. In his speech before the release of CPI, Fed Governor Waller had advocated that if the core CPI increased by about 0.3% or higher in October, a 2-point interest rate hike should be considered in December. The latest data fell within the range he proposed, adding more focus to the call for a larger single rate hike. However, speeding up doesn’t necessarily equal gaining 2 yards at a time. The report quoted Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, as judging that a 1-yard increase in each of consecutive meetings is now more likely to be an option; he expects a 1-yard increase in each of the next three meetings. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson favors gradual adjustments to give households and businesses time to adapt. She believes that if price pressure begins to be transmitted to wages or people's inflation expectations, it will be more necessary to speed up the pace, and she has not yet seen this happen. How the chairman integrates the differences will affect the extent and interval of interest rate hikes. In a post on the evening of November 11th, Taipei time, Timiraos summarized the options as a gradual increase of 1%, an early increase of 2%, or a forecast of more intensive 1% interest rate hikes. He believes that such tactical choices are often set by the chairman's integration, citing Greenspan's decisions in 1994, 2000, and Ball in 2022 as examples. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Kevin Warsh, who took over as chairman this year, still has few clear instructions on how to respond to such data. On the one hand, officials worry about rising too slowly and allowing inflation to continue; on the other hand, they must also weigh whether faster tightening will cool the economy more than necessary. This disagreement concerns both single-shot amplitude and decision interval. Even if it only increases by one yard at a time, if interest rates are raised continuously instead of every other meeting, interest rates will still reach higher levels faster, and the time for households and businesses to adjust to rising borrowing costs will also be shortened. Related reports: Fed Governor Waller is hawkish: He is inclined to raise interest rates by 1 point in December. If the CPI is still high in October, he must consider 2 points. Fed hawks are calling for at least two more interest rate hikes, and U.S. bond yields are soaring. The Fed's megaphone warns: The May CPI report will not help cut interest rates! Fed's focus returns to "Should we restart raising interest rates?" Volatility warning! Tonight at 21:30 non-farm payrolls will appear, and the chance of raising interest rates in December has exceeded 60%. [Federal Reserve Speaker: There is little suspense about raising interest rates in December, the focus turns to 1st or 2nd] This article was first published in "Dongzone Trends - the most influential blockchain news media" by BlockTempo.